Low base rate for novel export-control actions is outweighed by three signals: (1) an August 2025 MOFCOM consultation naming anode-grade graphite; (2) a 22% spike in FEOC-clean anode benchmark pricing consistent with pre-restriction stockpiling; (3) a Q4 shipping-pattern shift (AIS) showing CN-origin graphite re-routing through third countries. LLM weight is high because historical base rates are poor predictors of first-of-kind geopolitical actions.
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